Karcher leads Bennett slightly in poll

Published in the Asbury Park Press 11/02/03

By JASON METHOD
STAFF WRITER

The 12th District legislative race looks to be headed for a photo finish

Some 48 hours before the voting booths open, Democratic state Senate candidate Ellen Karcher leads Republican state Sen. John O. Bennett III by four percentage points heading into Tuesday's election, a Gannett New Jersey poll shows.

Karcher has 35 percent of the vote, compared with Bennett's 31 percent. But approximately one in every five likely voters said they were undecided, and 7 percent refused to indicate for whom they would vote. Four percent said they would vote for Green Party candidate Earl J. Gray of Red Bank.

With the 40-person Senate evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, the 12th District race is one of the most important in the state. It is one of a handful that could determine which party controls the chamber. Bennett, the Senate Republican co-president, is New Jersey's highest elected Republican.

In the District's Assembly races, Republican incumbents Michael J. Arnone of Red Bank and Clare M. Farragher of Freehold Township narrowly lead Democratic challengers Michael J. Panter Jr. of Shrewsbury and Robert L. Morgan of Little Silver for two seats.

Some 37 percent of the voters said they would vote for Arnone, 36 percent for Farragher. Morgan garnered 35 percent, while 33 percent supported Panter.

The results indicate the race remains tight. A Gannett poll in September had Karcher up by one percentage point. A Fairleigh Dickinson poll in early October placed her lead at six points. But Democratic Party polls had Karcher up 12 percentage points in mid-October.

Gannett polling director Gary Deckelnick said Bennett is starting to recapture voters he lost.

"Karcher is a little ahead, but Bennett lost many supporters amid controversy about his ethics," Deckelnick said. "But he's still in it. As the controversy ebbs each day, the people who left Bennett are starting to come back. If Karcher doesn't get her vote out, she'll lose."

Patrick Murray, senior pollster at Rutgers University's Eagleton Institute of Politics, said the undecided voters will determine the election.

"You have voters who won't decide until they reach the voting booth," Murray said. "This is anyone's race."

Murray said Republicans normally would do well under such circumstances, since most voters identify with the GOP in Monmouth County and Republican voters tend to be more diligent about getting to polling places.

"But you have Democrats spending gobs of money -- not only in advertising, but for a good get-out-the-vote effort," Murray added.

"So you have a dead heat," he said. "The key is going to be the Democrats' ability to get out their vote."

Thus, the election will hinge on people like Sheila L. Itinger, 62, of Freehold, who said she normally votes Democrat and will definitely vote. But she hasn't decided on this race yet.

"You think something good about one, but then you think, 'they did this,' " Itinger said.

"Between now and the election, the stuff I read and the stuff I see on TV will help make up my mind."

Or like Jessica Borriello, 30, of Shrewsbury, who said she wanted to dig through her newspapers and read the candidates' Web sites.

"I'm tired of the name calling, and (of campaigns) trying to attack the person rather than the issues at hand," Borriello said. "But I definitely will vote. We're concerned about taxes, health care reform and medical malpractice."

The Gannett poll also asked voters which of three issues they consider most important. Property taxes led with 35 percent; ethics came in second at 30 percent, and health care insurance reform was rated highest by 23 percent.

The Gannett poll was based on a telephone survey of 852 registered and very likely voters. It had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. Thus, Karcher's true support could be anywhere between 31.6 and 38.4 percent. Bennett's could be between 27.6 and 34.4 percent.

The Democratic and Republican campaigns said they were staying on their course through the end.

"We've consistently been ahead in our own internal polls, and the only poll that matters is Election Day," Karcher spokeswoman Julie Roginsky said. "Ellen Karcher will continue to talk about her messages of ethics reform, open-space preservation, and property tax reductions."

Bennett campaign manager Conor G. Fennessy said the poll showed Karcher had not yet closed the deal with voters.

"Ellen Karcher still has not told voters what she'll do as a state senator," Fennessy said. "She still has not articulated a plat-form. She still has not ex-pressed to voters why she won't be a 21st vote for Jim McGreevey's agenda."

Fennessy said Bennett would resume campaigning tomorrow after his father's funeral today.

Panter said he believed that he and Morgan were ready to pull ahead of longtime incumbents Arnone and Farragher.

"To be in a dead heat with long-time incumbents is very en-couraging," Panter said. "It takes an enormous effort to build up name recognition. It takes tremendous resources. We're one step away from bringing our victory home."

But Arnone, who has been crit-icized for hiring his daughter in his legislative office, said that if he is winning, it's be-cause the challengers have been too harsh.

"My opponents have spent a lot of money, and (their poll num-bers) appear frozen," Arnone said. "They went hard on nega-tive ads about two weeks ago, and they slipped a little. I don't think it's received well."

Bennett, who has been a state senator since 1989, was consid-ered unbeatable at the begin-ning of the year and a contend-er for the next gubernatorial nomination. But a series of ar-ticles in the Asbury Park Press detailed Bennett's questionable billing practices in Marlboro, where he has temporarily stepped aside as township at-torney while state and federal grand juries investigate legal bills he submitted to the munic-ipality. Karcher is the Marl-boro Council president.

Connie Paul, 59, of Freehold Township, said the issues sur-rounding Bennett will have her supporting Karcher.

"I'm voting against John Ben-nett; I have concerns about his personal business," Paul said. "I'm also in favor of more wom-en in politics. I applaud Karch-er for being active politically."

But Andrew Luhman, in his 60s, a semiretired math teacher from Freehold, saw it another way. He said he was more con-cerned about economic issues.

"I don't know how people can afford to live in this state," Luhman said. He said he would vote for "the one that's more conservative. If you're in office, that's a strike against you, but I don't see myself voting for that Karcher lady."